Dow 44,100 +0.9% record, S&P 5,880 +1.2%, Nasdaq 19,050 +1.5% as Apple $90.2B beats. ASX futures +0.6% to 8200.
US Dow 44,100 Record as Apple $90.2B Beats - ASX Futures +0.6% to 8200 - 26 Oct 2026
Published: 26 Oct 2026 | New Trading • US Impact on ASX | Source: Fed, Apple, CME | Educational Only
Dow Jones closed at 44,100 (+0.9%) record high, S&P 500 at 5,880 (+1.2%), Nasdaq at 19,050 (+1.5%) after Apple reported $90.2 billion revenue versus $88.0 billion expected per company report. Fed minutes indicated most participants see rate cuts soon. VIX closed at 13.2, lowest since July per CBOE data. ASX 200 futures rose 0.6% to 8200 after US close per ASX data, indicating positive open expected, though futures do not guarantee actual open.
Apple details: iPhone revenue $44 billion versus $42 billion expected, Services $25.5 billion +13% year-on-year, China sales down 1% versus down 8% feared, gross margin 46.2% versus 45.5% expected per Apple report. Apple also announced $110 billion buyback per company announcement. Fed minutes: 70% chance of 25bps cut in December priced by CME FedWatch, 100% by March 2026. Nine of 19 participants saw two cuts in 2026 per Fed dot plot summary.
Factual Summary - US Reports
US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.06%, down from 4.25% two days ago, 2-year at 4.18% down from 4.35% per Bloomberg. DXY dollar index fell to 103.2 from 104.5, down 1.2% in three days per Bloomberg. US jobless claims were 228k versus 230k expected, up 12k week-on-week per Department of Labor, indicating some cooling.
ASX impact: ASX 200 futures +0.6% to 8200 per ASX, AUD up 0.4% to $0.6720 per RBA, and iron ore up 1% to $120 per tonne per Mysteel. Historical correlation between S&P 500 overnight and ASX 200 next day open has been reported around 0.60 per CommSec research, though correlation varies and does not guarantee similar move.
Sector watch for ASX open: Technology stocks like Xero and Wisetech have historically had correlation around 0.65 with Nasdaq per CommSec, due to similar growth characteristics. Banks may benefit from lower yields if loan growth improves, though past relationships are not predictive.
What Fed Minutes Said - Public Excerpts
Fed minutes language per Federal Reserve release: Inflation has eased but remains elevated, labor market has come into better balance, participants expect it will be appropriate to cut if data allows. Participants noted that risks to inflation and employment have come into better balance per minutes.
Market pricing: CME FedWatch shows 70% probability of 25bps cut in December 2026 meeting, 45% probability of 50bps total cuts by December, and 100% probability of at least one cut by March 2026 per CME data as of 26 Oct. These are market prices, not Fed promises.
For ASX investors, US market moves often influence sentiment at open due to overnight news flow, with US being 55% of global market capitalisation per MSCI. However, ASX has its own drivers including RBA policy, commodity prices, and domestic earnings per RBA research.
Educational Context - No Advice: US market data is factual public information. ASX futures indicate expected open based on after-hours trading but actual open may differ. Past correlation between US and ASX does not guarantee future correlation. Apple earnings are watched as indicator of consumer tech demand but one company does not represent whole market. Fed rate expectations affect bond yields which affect equity valuations via discount rates in theory, but relationship is not guaranteed. This is general market information for education, not personal advice. Consider PDS and seek licensed advice.
Data: Federal Reserve minutes 25 Oct 2026, Apple Q4 2026 report, CME FedWatch, ASX, Bloomberg. Educational only.
Disclaimer
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