Iron ore $120/t on China $500B stimulus, BHP $47.80 +1.3%, Rio $133.20 +1.2%, Fortescue $27.10 +1.1%.
Iron Ore $120 on China $500B Stimulus - BHP $47.80, Rio $133.20 Close Higher - 26 Oct 2026
Published: 26 Oct 2026 | Commodities • ASX | Educational Only
Iron ore futures closed at $120 per tonne, up 14% in three weeks, after China announced infrastructure spending measures totaling $500 billion yuan per Reuters reports citing NDRC. BHP closed at $47.80 (+1.3%), Rio Tinto at $133.20 (+1.2%), and Fortescue at $27.10 (+1.1%). China steel output was 93 million tonnes in September, up 4% year-on-year, first rise in seven months per National Bureau of Statistics China data.
China announced $300 billion lending facility for property developers and mortgage rate cut to 3.2% from 3.45% per PBOC announcement. Infrastructure spending was reported up 9% year-on-year in Q3 per NBS China. Port iron ore inventories were 145 million tonnes, down from 150 million tonnes a month ago, with mill inventory coverage at 36 days versus 28 days prior month per Mysteel data, indicating restocking.
China Stimulus Details - Public Reports
Reuters reported on 25 October that China NDRC announced $500 billion yuan (approximately $70 billion USD) in additional infrastructure bonds for rail, water conservancy, and energy projects. The Ministry of Finance also announced $200 billion yuan in local government special bonds front-loaded to Q4 per public reports.
Property sector measures included PBOC cutting 5-year LPR to 3.2% and first-home buyer down payment ratio to 20% in Tier 1 cities per PBOC announcement. China property sales were reported down 1% year-on-year in September versus down 8% in June quarter per NBS, showing moderation in decline. New home prices were down 0.3% month-on-month versus down 0.7% prior month per NBS 70-city data.
Steel sector: China crude steel production of 93Mt in September was up 4% YoY, with daily average of 3.1Mt per NBS. Steel rebar price was 3,850 yuan per tonne, up 5% in two weeks per Mysteel. Steel mill profitability was reported at 45% of mills profitable versus 25% a month ago per Mysteel survey of 247 mills.
Miner Context - Company Reported Data
BHP reported iron ore production of 290 million tonnes per annum in its latest quarterly report, with C1 cash cost reported around $18 per tonne per company reports. Rio Tinto reported production of 320Mtpa with C1 cost around $20 per tonne. Fortescue reported 190Mtpa with C1 cost around $28 per tonne per respective company reports. These cost figures are reported by companies and are subject to exchange rates and royalties.
At $120 per tonne, implied EBITDA margins are higher than at $100 per tonne, but commodity prices are volatile. Historical range past 12 months was $95 to $135 per tonne per Mysteel data. Public forecasts vary: Goldman Sachs reported $95 average for 2026, Morgan Stanley $110 average per public research notes, which are forecasts not guarantees.
Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to add 120 million tonnes supply from late 2026 per Rio Tinto reports, which may affect supply balance. China iron ore demand is around 1.2 billion tonnes per year per NBS, with Australia supplying around 60% per ABS trade data.
Educational Context - No Advice: Iron ore price influences miner revenue but is volatile and affected by China demand, supply, and sentiment. Past price of $120 does not predict future price. Miner costs and production are reported by companies. Public forecasts from banks are opinions, not guarantees. This is factual market data for education about how iron ore market is reported, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold mining shares. Seek licensed advice.
Data: Mysteel, NBS China, PBOC, BHP/RIO/FMG ASX reports, Reuters. Educational only. Not advice.
Disclaimer
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